Parlays: Are they sharp or square?
Parlays are extremely popular among bettors, but you need to be careful if you want to turn them into a profit
Parlays are extremely popular in the sports betting world. Bettors love attempting to turn a few bucks into thousands, and sports media companies love celebrating the lucky few that succeed. But despite the astronomical payouts earned by a handful of bettors, parlays are a favorite of sportsbooks, often holding over 20% in the category. So what’s the deal with parlays? Are they inherently square? Or can they be profitable with the proper planning and execution? Let’s dive in.
Parlays are like the Sirens’ Song of the sports betting universe. They draw you in and eventually lead you to ruin. But, as we know, Odysseus and his crew survived the song of the Sirens by making themselves aware of the danger and preparing accordingly. If you understand how to approach parlays you can turn their alluring nature into a profitable endeavor.
The first thing to know is that throwing darts at the board and parlaying a few random selections is always a bad idea (almost always… keep reading*). Similar to any other type of sports bet, if you don’t have a calculated edge on a parlay you’ll never make a profit in the long term. It doesn’t matter how many $10 —> $1M parlays Darren Rovell shows you on Twitter: you’ll always come out negative if you try to win the parlay lottery.
But by combining a few selections with calculated edges, you can get good exposure to markets that you might not be able to otherwise. This is especially useful if you’re severely limited at a sportsbook.
Take the following example (these are extreme examples for the sake of clarity):
Pick 1: Odds of -400 when it should be -500, meaning a $100 bet will pay out $125 instead of $120. That’s an expected value (EV) of $4.13.
Pick 2: Odds of -200 when it should be -250, meaning a $100 bet will pay out $150 instead of $140. That’s an EV of $7.15.
On $200 total wagered, your total EV is $11.28, or a 5.64% expected ROI
Now let’s parlay those two selections, which we already know have significant edges, and require a significant stake size to get any decent returns…
Parlay: Odds of -114 when it should be -147, meaning a $100 bet will pay out $187.50 instead of $168. That’s an EV of $11.73.
On $100 total wagered, your total EV is $11.73, or a 11.73% expected ROI
As I mentioned before, this is a very extreme example and when you go into those high probability outcomes you’re unlikely to see such large discrepancies. But in any case, parlaying these two outcomes is greatly superior to betting them individually. Of course it’s good to note that the parlay is less likely to hit than either of the singles, but the math supports going for it.
If you have severely slashed limits, parlaying selections with calculated edges is a great way to create worthwhile payouts with similar EV/ROI while keeping stake size low and beneath your limits.
So there you have it. Parlays CAN be profitable, but only if the individual bets would be profitable on their own.
SGP and Correlations
Same Game Parlays are extremely hot in the streets right now. They’re exactly the same as any other parlay, only each selection comes from the same game. This leads to correlated outcomes, which can make an otherwise unprofitable bet profitable.
Correlated outcomes are any two events that influence one another. Sportsbooks are fairly advanced these days and calculate correlations pretty well, but there’s still some room to attack. Pre-priced parlay companies like Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks are popular options that do not take correlations into account and provide good opportunities to capitalize.
An example of this is QB Passing Yards with WR Receiving Yards. If one of these players goes over on his yardage total, his teammate is immediately more likely to go over. Same goes for hitters in baseball (if a hitter gets a hit, it’s more likely his teammates will get additional at-bats, giving them extra opportunities to get hits). There are a million different correlations, but if you can find books that don’t account for these you can make a pretty solid profit by taking advantage of them.
Throwing the traders off your scent (*)
The easiest way to appear square is to fire off parlays. It doesn’t matter how sharp each individual leg of the parlay is, a trader will see a 6-fold in the queue and automatically think you’re square. Of course if you start making a killing they might take a closer look, but initially you’ll look like just another dummy trying to hit the lottery.
Parlays, even uninformed lottery parlays, can pay long-term dividends by keeping your limits high. Because of that fact, the parlay is a fun tool to change the sportsbooks’ perception of you as a bettor. Mix in a 6-legger every once in a while to make yourself appear like an idiot. Even if it loses (which it probably will) it will pay for itself when you’re allowed to bet triple digits on player props for an extra month or two.
In conclusion
Parlays cater to the square punter but absolutely can be used in a sharp manner. I’d recommend calculating EV and expected ROI for each leg and then compare the total to the parlay, as I did above, before placing a ton of parlays. Once you get a feel for which types of parlays are profitable and which aren’t, you’ll have a better idea of how to make them work for you.
Consider correlations and ask yourself if the sportsbook’s coefficient is correct. Correlations are logical but sometimes extremely difficult to calculate, and as we know sportsbooks are not immune to making mistakes. Find a bad calculation and hammer it for all it’s worth.
As always, be careful here. I’m not advocating for betting parlays recklessly, but do want to make sure people know they’re not always square.
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Thank you all so much for reading and I’ll talk to you again soon!